Good Morning Friend
I hope you're having an enjoyable week so far. Below i've pulled out various items of interest from today's blog post. There's plenty to flick through and muse over, to help in that daily battle against the bookies... hopefully something of interest for everyone... an 8/1 guest tip, hot and cold flat trainers this season, stats pointers for the 3.30 Beverley... let's crack on...
A Guest Tip... None from me again on Thursday, but something to muse over...
3.00 Beverley - MUSHARRIF - 1 point EW - (5 places)
This is from the in-form Gary B over at Always Back Winners, the only tipping service I currently follow with my own cash in addition to my own content of course, along with a good chunk of you who appear to be enjoying the ride. He hit a -29 point losing run (every 'tipster' has those, and worse, at some point) but soon put that behind him with a flurry of winners.. he hit +52 points this season (1 point EW) then went down to +22.5 points... 4 of his next 9 tips then won, only 2 unplaced... and now he's up to a season high of +61.8 points... he'll be flying past me soon if I'm not careful! Hopefully today.
For those on his 1k to 10k challenge, the starting bank of 1k, betting 1.25% Each-Way... is now on £1849.85. (stakes now £23.12 EW, current ROI over 28%)
That's pretty damn good from an average 6-7 bets per week, on the flat turf and winter all-weather, with a focus on C3 and below. Gary does know his flat handicaps. You can get a special RTP discount with 80% off your first month, so dip your toe in and see if it's for you... Take a look HERE>>>The write up from Gary...MUSHARRIF has served us well over the past couple of seasons and has looked as good as ever on last two runs when not exactly given a plum draw. He’s now on his last winning mark and another who has spent a season getting down 6lb but does have a number of post August wins to his name to potentially land one this term. Today he gets a nice low draw and one of a few who like it here looks to have a cracking chance dropped back in grade from those past two efforts. It’s taken a while for Declan Carroll’s yard to show some form and whilst not winning many, his sprinters have gone well of late. Indeed Shawaamekh was a consideration and tracker going in the (14.30) but despite running well from a poor draw at Chester LTO, has to do it again all around the outside in that one. Let’s hope we’re on the correct one 🙂 Zak Wheatley has done all his winning for us on this charge and again is doing the steering and and am taking the best 8/1 with SkyBet with FIVE paying slots this morning. * Regular RTP poster Warren B is happy... "I’m past the trial now. Have and are enjoying the service thanks for the recommendation Josh" I know a few of you are delighted with how its been going since you joined a few weeks back, and if you've yet to do so... You can take your £5 trial month HERE>>>
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Who's hot and who's not? I thought i'd take a look at Flat (turf/AW) trainers who've sent out at least 100 runners since racing resumed. I'll start with the ' cold' trainers, all runners... the 'bottom' 5... - Ruth Carr: 2/120, 9p
- Amanda Perrett (Mrs A Perrett): 3/110, 25p
- Mick Easterby: 3/124, 17p
- David Loughnane: 5/105, 16p
- Stuart Williams: 6/159, 28p
Whether those 5 are going to have a big burst before the season is out, we shall see. Some may well have health issues in their string or they had masses of badly handicapped horses, although those stats are for all runners. It's not a given that they will burst into life and for some it may just go down as an atrocious season. But, they're worth keeping an eye on for any green shoots of recovery. Hot trainers? These are simply the top 5 on win strike rate, with 100+ runners so far since June 1st... some familiar names... - Sir Mark Prescott: 29/108, 47p (26.85% win SR) (43.52% win/place SR)
- C Appleby: 39/152, 75 (25.66%) (49.43 % win/place SR)
- J Gosden: 79/329, 152p (24.01 %) (46.2%)
- W Haggas: 70/318, 148p (22.01%) (46.54%)
- R Charlton: 28/133, 49p (21.05%) (36.84%)
Obviously you can't back them blind but they'd be nothing wrong with focusing on those 5 as a 'way in'. I suspect a few, or maybe all, will keep those win SRs up for a good while yet, especially given the place SR. Admirable consistency from so many runners. * Today... stats pointers of interest...I'm going to focus on the 3.30 Beverley...a listed contest... two horses hit a few 'report' angles within the Geegeez racecards and may be worth a closer look... Major Jumbo- Trainer Stats Course 365 Days: 5/16, 10p +13
- Jockey Stats Course 365 Days: 7/26, 12p, +6
- Trainer Jockey 14 & 30 Day: 3/11, 4p... 8/26, 14p +74
- Trainer/Jockey Course 365 Days: 4/10, 6p +11
- Trainer/Jokey Course 5 years: 10/48, 23p +13
- Trainer/Jockey 1 year: 31/130, 54p, +130
So, some solid stats foundations there. The horse is in 1st blinkers which is interesting - if they spark him up, not impossible he could blast out and get the rail. In any case, those stats for Kevin Ryan and Kevin Stott may be useful for today's Beverley card and the future... Tarboosh- Trainer stats 14 Days: 6/18, 9p +13 (a yard in form)
- Trainer stats Course 365 Days: 5/21, 9p, -3
- Horses for Courses: 2/5, 2p
The horse... a 50s poke for us 8 days ago when 3rd at York where he needed taking into the race for longer, and a headwind to slow the leader down, rather than a tailwind to push him! But he ran his race. He has a contest like this in him and may have some pace to sit behind, but could need luck in running. And that effort may have taken it out of him although it could be argued that's the best piece of recent form in the race. I'll leave you to have a deeper look if you wish. Listed contests wouldn't be my natural hunting ground but again, some useful pointers there for the future - Midgley's string are clearly in fine form.
You can find all of the above in today's post HERE>>> *
With any luck there's something of interest above that's useful for today and moving forwards,
Have a great day,
Josh
p.s Don't forget you can try Gary's excellent service HERE>>> £5 for a month to see if his approach is for you. It's stress free given he averages 6/7 bets per week, giving you space to find your own picks etc. That's what I like about it, and he's just bloody good and knows his flat/aw handicaps like no-one else i've seen as yet. Although this email will no doubt put the mockers on him! Take a look HERE>>>
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